__/ [r.e.ballard@xxxxxxx] on Friday 14 October 2005 16:23 \__
> billwg wrote:
>> "Roy Schestowitz" <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>> > Slashdot, minutes ago:
>> > The year: 2020
>> > "When Linux began to hit the desktop, 20 years ago this month,
>> > it was considered nothing more than a free operating environment
>> > that had arrived late to the party, well behind the industry
>> > leader Microsoft.
> First problem is that Linux would be 20 years old in 2011. SLS, the
> first "full featured" release of a "Linux distribution" was shipped in
> early 1993. If you really wanted to stretch it you could perhaps claim
> 1993 as the big year, 20 years later would be 2013.
Thus my carefully-picked phrase "began to hit the desktop".
>> > Now, it's the operating system used on nearly 95 percent
>> > of all the spaceships, desktops and notebooks sold worldwide.
> Spaceships? Heads-up displays, VR helmets, wearable computers,
> personal communicators, lots of other technology similar to that used
> in Iraq today by the armed forces - yes. Spaceships is so 1960s.
> Besides, *nix is the primary OS used in most of the spacecraft in use
> today. The shuttle is still based on 1970s technology and still has a
> computer based on the COSMAC 1702. Windows is used as a primary
> display unit with a *nix machine as a backup display unit.
"Spaceship" was a sarcastic pun, intended to imply that something fishy was
going on and that the Slashdot link must have pointed to something else.
> The funny thing is that Linux and *nix is so pervasive and yet
> invisible at the same time. The PC may have the Windows logo in the
> bottom left-hand corner, but nearly everything else, from the display
> system to the e-mail, web, and most of the applications, has been
> driven by, inspired by, or powered by - *nix.
What about the Mac?
What is that machine at the back, from which Gates got his 'inspiration'
(READ: nicked the GUI)?
I guess the more modern Windows is a separate matter.
> The "look and feel" of Windows was a variant of Motif, licensed to
> Microsoft by HP back in the very early 1990s (1991?).
> MS-Office is based on SCO Open Desktop - licensed to Microsoft back in
>> > Take a look at Linux past and present, and
>> > what lies ahead in the future, including an interview with Mr. Linus
>> > Torvalds himself."
>> Roy tries to re-write history, presumably to shade the sluggish history
>> of linux towards a brighter tone, but linux will have to muster it's
>> reply by 2011 if it is to meet the 20 year criteria.
>> Particularly if you want to claim Windows really started with Win 1.0!
>> Windows started, as most people know, with 3.0. Everything before that
>> was just fiddling around and wasn't in the consumer product category at
> Yes. Microsoft was investigated by the Federal Trade Commision for
> it's illegal use of Vaporware to dissuade buyers and OEMs from
> switching to Macs or Solaris SLCs or ILCs. Even 3.0 wasn't really all
> that successful. Most people did not use Windows 3.0 with overlapping
> Windows. The more common practice was to run each application in "Full
> Screen" mode (partly because the resolution of the displays was only
> 640x480 or 800x600). Those who tried to use Windows 3.0 overlapping
> Windows the way others used Mac or *nix workstations, usually found
> that their machines would crash within 20-30 minutes. Microsoft even
> added an "auto-save" feature to Word to reduce the amount of work lost
> to Windows crashes.
> It took Microsoft nearly 5 years to get from the lab to a working
> workstation, and it took another 10 years to get to Windows 2000, which
> achieved about 70% of the functionality offered by the Sun SLC and ILC
> in 1991. It only took Linux 2 years to offer nearly 90% of those
> features in 1993. In fact, Sun contributed OpenLook and OpenLook
> Window manager (OLWM) to Linux repositories and was included in Linux
> distributions as early as SLS.
> Linux has continued to evolve far beyond the capabilities of those
> early Sun workstations and remains far more evolved than Windows, even
> Windows XP and the proposed Vista. Many of the features that were
> dropped from Vista have been available for Linux for quite a while.
> Microsoft wants us all to believe that because they spend $4 billion in
> marketing fees, and $20 billion in legal fees to prevent the public
> from knowing that Linux is far more powerful, flexible, reliable,
> secure, stable, feature-rich, and manageable than Windows, that Windows
> is actually "superior" to Linux.
Well-worded. I like that.
> IBM, Dell, and HP have jointly spent less than $1 billion promoting
> Linux, and Dell and HP simply make reference to not being "locked into
> proprietary systems" and never even use the word Linux.
> License fees for Linux distributions are far lower than similar fees
> for Windows, when unit volumes are compared to revenues, Linux comes up
> at 1/5th the total TCO of Windows. This is when all "Windows related
> Revenues" are compared to all "Linux related Revenues" and compared to
> "Units shipped, downloaded, or registered).
> Many Linux "servers" are actually Linux desktops, and many Linux
> "appliances" are actually performing functions that could and should be
> performed by Linux workstations. Windows needs these "appliances"
> because they lack so much of the functionality, even at the kernel
> level, of UNIX or Linux.
> Microsoft will continue to float down that river in Egypt - Denial -
> until the day when Linux is so pervasive that OEMs can no longer
> tolerate the loss of profits from being "commoditized" by Windows.
> OEMs have far more flexibility with Linux. They can choose from a
> wider range of hardware, a wider range of performance perameters (RAM,
> CPU Speed, Hard Drives, Packaging,...) and get more profit from the
> systems they sell.
> At some point, Linovo, HP, Dell, Sony, and Gateway are going to tell
> Microsoft "Yes we want x million licenses, but we will configure them
> the way WE want to configure them, and we will configure them as VM
> clients of Linux".
> The alternative is an even bigger threat, that Linksys, D-Link, Cisco,
> NetGear, Belkin, Panisonic, Sharp, or some other "appliance maker" will
> simply create a Linux "Appliance" which includes a fully functional
> desktop, WiFi access, USB storage connectors, flash RAM slots, and
> updates via network. The "appliance" will also include an X-Win server
> similar to the one included with Cygwin, and this will run on ANY
> Windows box.
> At this point, the OEM Windows hardware becomes even more commoditized,
> because now Windows is reduced to being a cheap X11 terminal. No need
> for Windows, Office, or even Windows applications anymore, because for
> $90, your can have a Linux "appliance" which runs all of your favorite
> Linux applications from either a network drive (a Windows share), a USB
> Drive (look MA, 1 Terabyte on 3 drives), and/or Flash RAM (SD, CF, or
> The irony is that PCs, even with Vista, will continue to sell for about
> $200 each, while Linux "appliances" and external USB drives can be
> added for less than $200 more. At this point, Microsoft becomes
> "irrelevant", but so do Dell, HP, Gateway, and Sony, along with any
> other OEM who accepts Microsoft's control over their desktop
Unless, of course, they adapt to change. Not everyone who upgrades to Linux
will be aware of the shady past business paractices of the companies above.
> The big "difference" will be that instead of a dumb "web interface",
> the Linux "core interface" will be X11. This means that Gnome or KDE,
> along with all of the best features of Linux desktops, will be
> available, and could easily be displayed and demonstrated using ANY
> windows laptop.
> If someone wants to make gigabucks soon, I'd suggest they take apart
> one of those Linksys "SAN Controllers" or "Lan Drives" and figure out
> how to reprogram the FLASH RAM with a Linux "Desktop" implementation.
> The X11 Display can be configured using cygwin and selecting the "X11"
> environment. Even just "Xterm" should be enough to get a fully
> functional display.
I think I ought to point out the following:
Which led me (via user's comment) to this:
Always a pleasure reading your essays.
Roy S. Schestowitz | Gas, brake, honk! Honk, honk, punch! Gas, gas!
http://Schestowitz.com | SuSE Linux | PGP-Key: 74572E8E
5:15pm up 50 days 5:29, 3 users, load average: 0.41, 0.33, 0.32
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