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Re: Suse CTO says linux' desktop market share in 5 years will be single digits

  • Subject: Re: Suse CTO says linux' desktop market share in 5 years will be single digits
  • From: Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2006 14:14:53 +0100
  • Newsgroups: comp.os.linux.advocacy
  • Organization: schestowitz.com / ISBE, Manchester University / ITS
  • References: <1155903583.880899.230650@b28g2000cwb.googlegroups.com> <1155906264.699647.259880@h48g2000cwc.googlegroups.com> <1155906491.688192.122560@m73g2000cwd.googlegroups.com>
  • Reply-to: newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • User-agent: KNode/0.7.2
__/ [ casioculture@xxxxxxxxx ] on Friday 18 August 2006 14:08 \__

> George Ellison (undercover) wrote:
>> casioculture@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
>> > Oh man. It'll take forever.


I suspect that you have just fed a crossposting flatfish. Judging by the
groups posted to, it's likely to be flatfish+++ (sockpuppet codename "Tomas
Dunton").


>> > "For the desktop, market share in mature markets will be single digits
>> > in five years; in emerging markets it will be in the 15 percent to 20
>> > percent range."
>> >
>> > http://www.internetnews.com/dev-news/article.php/3627061
>>
>> At least he's being realistic.  Do we really want the other 90+%
>> anyways? There's already enough people calling for Linux to turn into a
>> poor man's Windows.
> 
> Yes. I think linux should stay away from windows and develop on its own
> terms, with its own innovations. I just used kio-locate and love it.
> It's things like that that are uniquely linux.


Desktop? 5 years? In 5 years not many people will be using desktops. And
let's look around us:

* Mobile devices are gaining traction and Linux is set to dominate that arena
with an expected market share of 40% within a few years (at the expense of
Symbian and others).

* The PlayStation 3 and Wii run Linux. The PlayStation is likely to have the
largest market share.

* SOA. Linux is the best choice bar none in terms of TCO. I am not sure about
Sun. UNIX is always weakening. And how many people do you know who opt for
Web-based applications nowadays? They are almost exclusively LAMP (the
successful ones anyway).

The landscape is transforming itself. In 10 years, the days when people used
computer on desks (as opposed to e.g., speak to their mobile device) may
seem a great distance away. Look back just over a decade ago and discover
that Gates' thought that the Internet was bound to disappear or would never
catch on.

Best wishes,

Roy

-- 
Roy S. Schestowitz      |    The most satisfying eXPerience is UNIX
http://Schestowitz.com  |    SuSE Linux     |     PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
  2:05pm  up 29 days  2:20,  7 users,  load average: 0.14, 0.58, 0.60
      http://iuron.com - Open Source knowledge engine project

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