In comp.os.linux.advocacy, DFS
on Thu, 4 May 2006 17:47:22 -0400
> Roy Schestowitz wrote:
>> It will be really funny
> I'm already laughing... at your absurd claims.
>> when we reach the day when, in practice, half
>> of all the computers worldwide (e.g. $100 laptop will be 300-500
>> million in number within 2 years) run Linux
> Look, here I am laughing again, like an idiot...ROFL!! So is 2007 or 2008
> the next "Year of Linux"?
2038 will be the year of 64-bit -- and that mostly because of 32-bit
time_t issues. Windows is a smidge ahead, though ideally they
shouldn't be (Windows' time handling is so screwed up it's a wonder
it works; Unix time handling is relatively simple but does suffer
from the 0x7fffffff limitation in 32-bit hardware).
Otherwise, there will be no Year of Linux. I expect
Microsoft to continue to attempt to gain inroads into the
server market, or die trying. Proprietary Unixes will
die or mutate into Linuxoidians, incorporating GPL and/or
Linux-based software, as a defense. Microsoft will continue
to improve their desktop product, to the point where it will
be nearly as robust as current Unix/Linux offerings, and far
more ubiquitous. Some of this improvement, of course, will
be changes to internal routines; others will simply be
buttressing using virus scanning technology already extant.
This is all assuming we don't run out of electrical energy,
period, in the next 3 decades. (This is rather unlikely but
depends on various issues.)
Windows Vista does not look to be a major success,
but it will set the stage for compatibility offerings
by Linux/GUI software. In other words, it's still the
bandleader; whatever Vista offers is what Windows will
have and Linux must have. (The good news: Linux already
has most of what Vista is currently offering. The bad
news: Linux doesn't seem to be able to get much of a tune
out that can drown out Vista's siren song, at least along
users; servers, however, are very happy.)
DRM/Palladium is an interesting wildcard. Unknown
resolution; it depends on general contexts regarding
governmental censorship of the Internet. If the US decides
its in its best interests to censor the Internet a la
China (remember, we're still at war, even though Congress
never declared such), expect many ugly but interesting
things here. Film piracy is costing studios $6.1B per
year so expect some activity there:
Note that this includes personal duplication, which according to
the MPAA is also illegal.
EU sanctions: *no effect*. This will probably embarrass the
Europeans considerably. (It's a pity.)
US legal issues: little or no effect. Not that this Administration
really needs any more embarrassment. (Then again, pounding Microsoft
isn't a priority of the Republicans.)
I don't see Microsoft losing. I don't see them *winning*, but I don't
see them losing.
Windows Vista. Because it's time to refresh your hardware. Trust us.