On Apr 16, 1:41 pm, William Poaster <w...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> On Mon, 16 Apr 2007 10:53:59 -0500, Linonut wrote:
> > After takin' a swig o' grog, Dr. GroundAxe belched out this bit o' wisdom:
> >> Microsoft running in fear of Linux?
That's not just the opinion of a few Linux and OSS programmers. It's
the direct
communications from Microsoft's top executives. Look at the Halloween
memos.
Keep in mind that Linux is the only competitor that Microsoft has ever
had that
seems to thrive even in Microsoft's most hostile efforts. They can't
be bought. They
can't win a proxy war. The leaders have integrity and don't "sell
out" easily.
Microsoft is very threatened by the entire open source movement.
Firefox has spread to over 300 million users.
OpenOffice has spread to 200 million users.
There are nearly 300 million Linux appliances.
Apache still has more than 2/3 of the Web sever market.
Cygwin, VMWare Player, Live-CD, Dual-Boot, and USB-Boot
configurations have put some form of Linux on nearly 500
million machines.
Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, South America, Southern India, and
Eastern Europe
are the fastest growing segments of the PC market, and they are using
a lot of Linux.
Resistance to OSS in corporate server environments is almost
nonexistent. OSS and Linux
have gained a well-deserved reputation for stability, security,
reliability, and flexibility.
Microsoft has moved into damage control mode, trying to protect what
remains of their
Small Business markets - companies who need servers for groups of
10-20 people, at least one
of which is a Windows MCSE.
In the workstation market, resistence to Vista could be an indicator
that corporate IT management
is prepared to defect to Linux. XP has gotten very long in the
tooth. There are some companies
who are still rejecting XP and staying with Windows 2000. Linux and
virtualization could make
Windows 2000, or even "obsolete" Windows NT 4.0 a viable alternative
to XP and Vista.
Unfortunately, this is usually when things get really ugly. When
competition threatened the
General Store sponsored by the railroad, the Lincoln county war
escalated to the point where
the heros and villians were indestinguishable. Pat Garret and Billy
the Kid were both players
in this range war. In another town, the Clantons and the Earps were
fighting it out - the Clantons
trying to protect their farms, and the Earps fiting on behalf of the
railroad and the cattlemen. In
Missouri, Jesse James was often considered a hero by the homesteaders,
many of whom were under
threat of forclosure as the banks hired cattlement to burn the
farmer's crops. Jesse James burned the
mortgages in each bank he robbed.
Steve Ballmer has tried to paint leaders in the OSS as "Commies" and
"terrorists".
The OSS community has probably had a few people who have legitimately
earned
the title, using OSS technology to spread and control windows bot-
maker viruses.
Keep in mind the range wars of the midwest often began when the
farmers began
to realize that the Sherriff or Marshal was working for the Railroad,
and had
no interest in prosecuting those who were murdering farmers, only the
farmers
who tried to fight back. In most cases, the farmers who fought back
were simply
lynched by the cowboys.
Microsoft is like these other monopolists. They will be using every
means at their disposal,
including control of the presidency, to maximize their control over
the industry for as long
as they possibly can. When the opposition decides to take matters
into their own hands,
it could be almost as ugly.
The irony is that Microsoft may even go so far as sabotaging it's own
Software, including Windows 2000
and Windows XP systems - in an attempt to force CIOs to upgrade to
Vista. Microsoft may even start
engaging in open hard-core extortion and sabotage - sending software
"upgrades" which will enable the
company to disable Windows XP systems entirely - along with a new EULA
which permits them to disable the
software based on new restrictions designed to prevent a company from
deploying Linux to the desktop.
When Mobsters shot up speak-easys in the 1930s, the primary goal was
to demonstrate the ability to enforce the territory. Modern street
gangs engage in similar tactics. Often having a member pose as the
opposition, then offering to be the Muscle to protect the
"territory". Notice that one new virus appears to be the LUALL.EXE
used for Symantic's "Live Update" - a tactic which makes it look like
Symantic is making the PC run slowly. Funny that it was never a
problem until Vista was released.
Expect other dearty tricks to follow. These are the acts of desparate
people taking desparate measures to avert an outcome that is
ultimately inevitable. Ironically, in the range wars between the
farmers and the ranchers, the decisive factor was usually the
railroads, and their monopoly control of transportation into and out
of the area. The farmers who had spent nearly a decade clearing the
land, tilling the fields, and making the land usable by cattle, were
being forced out by the railroads who wanted to close the spurs -
because the cattle could be driven right up to the rail-heads.
Farmers in the west really didn't get relief until the 20th century,
with the advent of trucks and highways.
Paved roads made it possible for anybody to pick-up, and deliver goods
destined for market.
> >> Ummmm...riiight. Microsoft rules the
> >> desktop and there is no sign of that changing.
That's not what Microsoft's top executives have said while speaking
under oath.
They have made it very clear that they feel that Unix, Linux, OS/2,
Mac, OS/X,
and other could very easily displace Microsoft. Remember, Microsoft
needs to
maintain 70% profit margins on revenue. Microsoft gets OEM licenses
on 100 million
machines. To maintain $40 billion revenue, at least $10 billion needs
to come from
licenses - roughly $100 per machine. There are nearly 300 million
professional PC
users. To maintain current Enterprise revenue levels, Microsoft must
collect an average
of $100 per professional user per year. Less than 1/2 of those are
enterprise users.
If Linux captures 20% of the total current deployments, that could
cost Microsoft some
serious leverage - meaning that revenues per PC could drop to $60, and
revenues per
Professional could drop to $40/year.
If 300 million users decide that OpenOffice and/or ODF is "good
enough" - that could be
300 million Office systems that won't be upgraded and no maintenance
contracts. They
can still use MS-Office "as is", but Microsoft's profits and revenue
depend on upgrades and
maintenance contracts. OSS threatens both.
Imagine. What would happen if Microsoft's annual revenue dropped from
$46 billion/year to
less than $20 billion? What would happen if Gross profit dropped
from $36 billion to $16 billion?
What would happen if Net income dropped from $11 billion to $2
billion?
The irony is that these would be very respectable profits and revenues
for most other companies, including
software companies. Most PC companies would be thrilled to make that
kind of profit. It's better than nearly all of Microsoft's primary
customers make, in terms of net profits to revenue.
> >> If the marketshare
> >> figures were reversed all the Linux zealots here would laugh at the
> >> suggestion that Linux was at threat from Microsoft.
If Linux was a monopoly, it would be very vulnerable. As it is, the
Linux market is an oligopoly.
There are several strong vendors who provide high quality
distributions that people are willing
to pay for. They may pay for licenses, support, or subscription
services, but they are willing to
pay an annual or monthly fee. If someone had a monopoly on Linux, it
might be Linux that was
selling for $300 per copy instead of $60/copy. If Windows were an
oligopoly, it might be Windows being
sold for $60 by 4-10 vendors who compete to provide outstanding
services that keeps customers coming back
instead of switching to the competitor's product.
Microsoft has even found that they can be their own best competitors.
Microsoft originally offered Home Basic
to appease the EU. Now they have discovered that by restricting how
Home Basic can be used, they can get direct revenue from customers
wishing to upgrade to Business or Ultimate - simply by having the OEMs
install only Home Editions.
The tactic could generate $billions in additional upgrade revenue, or
it could backfire completely. Customers may decide that Retail PCs
only running Home versions is insufficient for their needs, driving
the retailer out of the Windows business completely. The retailer may
turn to Linux in hopes of getting more profits and winning retail
customers who would otherwise purchase via the Web.
> > Then why all the astroturfing, interventions, and "Get the Facts"
> > campaigns?
>
> And why did Blammer say Linux was the Number One Threat to M$?
>
> > According to you, Microsofties should be laughing.
> > I don't see much laughing.
>
> Nor do I. A lot of wailing & gnashing of teeth about the clusterfuck that
> is Fista though.
Vista Sales are undeniably disappointing.
> --
> This message was not created on a
> Windows PC, & NO M$ products were used.
> The letters "F" & "U" & the word "Micro$oft"
> were brought to you by GNU/Linux.
Me too (this time).
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