My software experience was always with companies that had specialized
needs that could never be met by commercial software---outsourcing
didn't exist in those days, but I can't see how the work I was involved
in could have been outsourced. So I believe that there will never be
an end to the need for programmers in the West.
But commodity software is another matter, and there may be some losses
of jobs in that area. But jobs doing what? Building in
incompatibilities to lock out other vendors and destroy standards? We
could use less of that. It's obvious that the model that Microsoft
Word is based on is doomed, not to mention Windows itself.