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Corporate PC buyers want Linux with VM XP - not Vista

  • Subject: Corporate PC buyers want Linux with VM XP - not Vista
  • From: Rex Ballard <rex.ballard@xxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Aug 2007 07:13:27 -0700
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On Aug 27, 6:24 pm, Roy Schestowitz <newsgro...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
> Becoming a Linux OEM: A Roadmap
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | System76 has been able to establish itself as a real Linux distributor early
> | on, as it sells both notebooks and desktop machines. Other great examples
> | include  Emperor Linux and Linux Certified, both of which have been doing
> | this a lot longer than System76, though only with notebook-based Linux
> | systems.
> `----

Unfortunately these companies are not yet publicly held, and are
therefore not required to publish their revenues and profits.  Of
course, if they are doing really well, they might not need to go
public.  Keep in mind that most of these companies purchase large
quantities of PCs from other OEMs, including Dell, Lennovo, HP, Acer,
and Toshiba, configure them with Linux, and then resell them.  They
aren't actually OEMs, they are VARs.

The good news for both the OEMs and the VARs is that there aren't as
many of the supply chain problems as there are when you have to
manufacture machines that only run Linux and order them directly from
a manufacturer in huge bulk quantities.

The VAR knows exactly which peripherals and options will work with
their supported version(s) of Linux, and will make sure that you don't
purchase a computer that's completely compatible with Linux - except
for that Atheros 5008 A/B/G/N WiFi card that doesn't have the HAL
configured properly yet.  They will get you the Intel a/b/g/n card
that DOES support Linux.  Their preinstalled distribution and
customized distribution disk will also have the drivers updated to
make sure that your PC works the first time you boot it.  All you will
have to do is set the WEP key or WPA-PSK key.

If these VARs are getting profit margins of 20-30% with minimal equity
requirements they may not need to go public.  For example; the price
of a few hundred PCs per day that will be paid for and shipped within
48-72 hours.  Remember that Google didn't need to go public.  They had
lots of revenue and lots of profit.  They sold a very small percentage
of the company and even that was only so that older members of the
company who wanted to "cash out" and retire, could do so.  Many of
those who did get stock options as employees and officers have decided
to hang onto their stock, since it's still doing quite well, and
revenue and profits are still growing.

If you had to lease a factory, make minimum commitments to large
quantities, and tie up money for months or years from initial expense
to revenue, you would need a lot of credit, which would mean you would
need to go public to establish the value of the company and assure
liquidity of the loans.

If you only need to keep around four million dollars tied up for a
week or less, and you are making 5 million dollars within that week,
you might never need to go public.  Even better, the business model or
"franchise" can expand to $40 million out for $50 million back with
very little effort.  In fact, as your volume increases, your discounts
improve, which means you could end up making $50 million on $30
million per week.  If you figure an average price of $2000 per PC,
you'd only need to sell 2500 PCs to do $1 million/week.  If your
quantity discount prices on 2500 PCs/week was $1000 each, and you pay
$100/PC for the installations (actually much cheaper because a single
worker could install 10-20 machines at a time), you could still have a
very comfortable profit margin on revenues of $5 million/week.  That's
about $250 million in revenue, and $50 million in profit on an
annualized basis.

The market is very competitive, for obvious reasons, but the companies
who execute very well, provide excellent customer support, and provide
painless transition will tend to grow.  They will tend to maintain a
low profile, because their "word of mouth" traffic is probably growing
faster than expected, and they don't need "copy-cats" offering
inferior products and giving the Linux-PC a bad name.  Imagine if some
fly-by-night operator started installing selling cheap Celeron PCs
with FreeBSD as "iMac Compatibles".  Apple would probably get a bit
upset.

> http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/osrc/article.php/3696461

> Open Source: Changing Models, Changing Mindsets, Part 2
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | "Indeed, the evolution of the Internet is deeply interwoven with BSD Unix --
> | the original open source -- and now Linux," he said.
> `----
This really isn't news.  The commercialization of the Internet was
made possible by open source and Linux.  Many of the earliest dial-up
POPs were BBS systems that had been converted from Fido or Wildcat to
Linux.  In many cases, the connections started as 9600 baud dial-ups
connected on a PC to an X25 PAD or even a dedicated 9600 baud modem.
People were willing to pay real money for access, and before long, the
little POPs in the closet were being upgraded to 56kb and T1
connections.  Super-nets connected the pops to each other, and then to
the MCI back-bone.  Linux was at the heart of most of those early
pops.

Slackware 1.1 included an NCSA Web Server, Mosaic browser, and also a
CERN server.  It was enough to publish content via the web and CGI
made it possible to connect WAIS search engines which could then be
accessed by other WAIS search engines (or other Z39.50 compatible
search engines), allowing publishers to make their content
searchable.  All of this was happening in 1993-1994.

By the time Microsoft finally released Windows 95, Linux already had
full support for Web browsers AND Web Servers.  When the NCSA gave
Microsoft the ability to make proprietary enhancements to Mosaic,
trust for the NCSA was destroyed.  Those who had been contributing to
the NCSA started releasing their enhancements as GPL patches only.
The NCSA became "a patchy" server.  Eventually, the Apache team
drafted a new license, got the agreement of nearly all of the
contributors, and set up structures for the "safe" addition of
enhancments such as PERL and Java programs.

Microsoft has tried to "embrace and extend" - much the way an anaconda
"embraces" a gazelle and then "extends" it's jaw to swallow it whole,
but the Open Source community wasn't being cooperative.  Netscape was
purchased by AOL, and when Microsoft told AOL "no more enhancements",
the source code was published as Open Source Mozilla, and OSS
developers enhanced and refined it to the point where it exceeded the
capabilities of IE, without the security vulnerabilities.  To make the
memory more managable, the functionality was broken down to it's core
components, with the browser package becoming FireFox, the E-mail/news
package becoming Thunderbird, and even a calender package called
Sunbird.

While Windows still dominates most desktops, OSS is becoming a more
essential part of the desktop/laptop.  Almost 1/2 billion people have
"officially" installed FireFox, OpenOffice, and VMWare Player or
Cygwin, giving them access to Linux capabilities from their Windows
desktop.

Many, including myself, once predicted that Linux would completely
display Windows and Microsoft would face a crisis.  Instead, Linux has
become perceived as an enhancement to Windows.  Even when Linux is the
"host" operating system in virtualized servers and desktops, Windows
is often one of the "clients", and since a Microsoft License is still
required for these capabilities, Microsoft has actually thrived from
the adoption of Linux.

> http://www.linuxinsider.com/rsstory/59026.html
>
> Related:
>
> TurboLinux computers now sold by EPSON
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | DELL did it, now it's EPSON's turn to propose computers running Linux
> | as OS, their offer is made of the Endeavor LX7800, a desktop available
> | in BTO with CPUs going from the Celeron to the inevitable Core 2 Duo
> | and the Endeavor LX1000 which is a laptop also available in Build To
> | Order. This one features an ATI Radeon Xpress 200M graphic card and a
> | 15 inches XGA resolution.
> `----

Microsoft's last "Loyal" OEM, Gateway, had lost so much of it's value,
that it's price was below $2 per share and Gateway was in jeopardy of
being de-listed from the exchange.  Acer, a manufacturer who has
become very successful by making nearly all of their computers "Linux
Ready", has now decided that the company is cheap enough to buy,
making it the new 3rd largest player.  With Dell, HP, Lennovo, and
Acer all being "Linux Friendly" - Microsoft is having to face the
reality of having to "play nice" with Linux or face becoming obsolete.

Microsoft has been licensing parts of it's Windows technology, for
WINE and Crossover, as well as Virtualization, to Linux distributors.
Customers who purchase Vista Home Basic and download a "freebie"
version of Linux will not be allowed to use Vista as the client VM.
Those same customers who purchase commercial versions of Linux, that
have licensed Microsoft technologies, will be able to run MS-Office
and Project on Wine, and will be able to run Vista as a Virtual client
on those licensed Linux systems.

> http://www.akihabaranews.com/en/news-14220-TurboLinux+computers+now+s...
> Toshiba Italy mulls pre-loaded Linux notebooks
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Toshiba's Italian channel sales and marketing operation reportedly
> | is considering offering pre-loaded Linux in its Tecra, Satellite, Portege,
> | and Qosmio notebook lines, according to a story published online last week
> | in the Il Sole newspaper.
> `----
Toshiba already makes some of their PCs "Linux Ready".  Like most
OEMs, the "Linux Ready" machines tend to hold their value better, and
are therefore more expensive than "Windows Only" machines that often
end up in price-wars in an attempt to dump inventory on retail
customers who don't check as carefully.

Keep in mind that the Corporate Market is now making "Linux Ready" a
requirement on nearly all of their PCs, including desktops and
laptops.  They often test for compatibility using Life-CD
installations, and even doing full installations on the finalists,
before deciding to purchase large quantities.

Having the machines "Linux Ready" means that they can transition to
Linux very quickly if Microsoft tries to push too hard.  Even if they
never make the switch, the machines can be configured with Linux and
donated to charities or shipped abroad.  This can extend the life of a
PC by as much as 10 years, making the possibility of "One PC per
Child" very close to a reality.  Companies such as Dell, Lennovo, and
HP even have lease or return programs which allow corporate customers
to send back the old computers.  Dell could donate almost 50 million
PCs to charities and third-world countries through NGOs, but only if
the recipient is willing to use Linux on the PC.

If they want Windows, they have to get it from Microsoft (who often
will donate the license based on the original OEM serial number/
license).  The problem is that when a corporate customer installs the
corporate image, it nullifies the OEM license.  The volume managed
licenses replace the OEM licenses, and when the machines are shipped
back to the OEM, the OEM licenses are no longer valid.

The legal subtleties of Microsoft Windows and Office licenses can be
quite confusing.  The short version is that the OEMs buy huge
quantities of licenses, more than they will need, then slap on the
sticker and ship them as Licensed.  The corporate customer must have
an OEM license in order to legally install the corporate license.  The
corporate license nullifies the OEM license, and therefore Microsoft
gets paid for 2 licenses on the same machine.

When a new version of the OS comes out, the OEM purchase a bulk
quantity of licenses.  For a modest additional fee, he can install
previous versions of the OS (Windows XP instead of Vista...), the
corporate customer who is on Microsoft's support program automatically
"gets" the new License, even if they do not instal the new version of
the software.  Microsoft released Vista and was able to claim 2 Vista
licenses for each corporate PC covered by their support program.

The actual number of machines that have been deployed as Vista
machines seems to be a bit of an embarassment for Microsoft.  It seems
that less than 1/2 of the machines sold by OEMs such as Dell, HP, and
Lenovo are being sold with Vista installed (even though a Vista
license was obtained).  Net result, 100 million Vista "Licenses" may
only result in 25 million Vista deployments.

But why would people want XP instead of Vista?

Perhaps one of the big reasons, is because Vista has too many
restrictions,
Vista tries to gobble up all the memory.
Vista  tries to lock-out 3rd party products.
It might be that XP runs very nicely as a Linux Virtual client.
Vista pitches fits when you try.
XP only needs 256 meg of virtual RAM,
Vista needs almost 2 gig to be useful.
XP provides the standard display with all of the features on a Virtual
Machine
Vista doesn't offer any of it's 3D graphics capabilities as a VM
Client.
Vista doesn't offer multimedia capabilities when run as a Linux VM
Client.

Vista security is STILL inferior to competitor products
   such as Norton/Symantic and McAffee.

In retaliation, Symantic and McAfee are offering antivirus for Linux,
Linux now has better firewall and anti-virus support.

Linux is fully compliant with published standards, often setting the
standard.
Vista has numerous "proprietary enhancements".
Most Microsoft "enhancements" compromise security.
Vista has even WORSE problems with viruses, worms, and Trojans.
Vista users are REQUIRED to allow spy-ware - approved by Microsoft.

The more informed buyers are, the less desirable Vista becomes.
Corporate buyers, who make up almost 70% of the PC market,
 are very well informed.

> http://www.desktoplinux.com/news/NS9644921792.html
>
> Dude, I'm Getting a Dell...with Linux!
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Last night, my boyfriend and I customized a Dell Inspiron 530N desktop with
> | Ubuntu version 7.04 pre-installed. You may be wondering, why convert to an
> | open-source platform? We were tired of Microsoft's security issues. Plus,
> | there are still many apps and hardware that aren't compatible with Vista yet,
> | not to mention the cheapest Vista edition you can buy is $199.
> `----

I just said that above. ;-)

> http://www.gearlog.com/2007/08/dude_im_getting_a_dellwith_lin.php
>
> Acer and Ubuntu? What Acer?
>
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | Naaay. No demand? If so, why is Acer shipping to EMEA (Europe, the Middle
> | East and Africa) at least 11 configurations with Linpus Linux instead of
> | Windows?
> `----
Not to mention that Acer just offered to buy Gateway, whose stock
price had dropped so low it was about to be delisted by the NYSE.  It
seems that Gateway's unfailing loyalty to Microsoft had led to huge
losses.  About the only quarters where they made money, were the
quarters when they started offering Linux-Ready servers, desktops, and
laptops.

> http://beranger.org/index.php?page=diary&2007/07/31/15/27/12-acer-and...
>
> Lenovo to sell laptops with Linux
> ,----[ Quote ]
> | The laptops are slated to go on sale in the fourth quarter of this year and
> | will be sold to Lenovo's business customers as well as to consumers.
> `----
These days, almost all of the Lenovo Thinkpads are "Linux Ready".  In
fact, Lenovo has stopped offering configurations that aren't "Linux
Friendly".  Perhaps that's because IBM, who is one of their biggest
customers, has publicly stated that they intend to have Linux on all
of their desktops by the end of 2007.  Windows might be there too, but
all of the machines they are now deploying - can be configured with
their Linux Client for E-Business package.

> http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKWNAS010720070806?rpc=44


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