thad01@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <thad01@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> espoused:
> In article <tu6vd4-og4.ln1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> you wrote:
>>
>> Interesting you mention this. I was considering whether the recent
>> moves by Dell to offer Linux machines might not be more of a sign of
>> board in panic than a realistic strategy. It takes time to a presence
>> in a new market, and I do not know if Dell have enough. Worse, initial
>> forays into new markets are often not particularly successful, as there
>> is so much new work to learn about, and so many new mistakes to make.
>> Dell could argue that they've been offering linux in China for some
>> time, and could perhaps learn from that, but internal corporate politics
>> usually prevents the best lessons from striking home.
>>
>> I'm in two minds as to whether Dell will be a huge linux retailer in
>> about 5 years, or just a fading memory.
>
> A few months ago I read an essay by ESR regarding the Linux desktop
> and 64 bit computing, and recent moves by Dell now has me thinking
> about it. His basic premise was that major operating system migrations
> are usually driven by major hardware migrations, as is evident by past
> changes from 8 bit to 16 bit computing and 16 to 32. Now 64 bit
> systems are arriving and finally hitting the desktop, and the
> operating system best positioned to take advantage of that could be
> the desktop system of the future. Charts showing the typical memory
> installed in systems over the years show a trend with 2008 being the
> year when we blow past the limits imposed by the 32 bit architecture.
I read the article when it came it - it's well written and compelling,
however, I believe it fails to recognise a key issue, that the major
developments in hardware at the moment are not the sustaining
developments of 64 bit processing (besides, Apple had that for years
before giving it up to go Intel), but in Arm-like architectures for
mobility and low power.
>
> Microsoft has a 64 bit Windows, but it lacks apps and market
> penetration, particularly in the desktop space. Vista sucked up
> a huge amount of development resources and has left them behind
> the curve in this regard. Linux has its own challenges to overcome,
> but has some serious advantages with its current native 64 bit
> support across nearly its entire software suite.
Okay, except there is no requirement for 64-bit... in all honesty,
Microsoft gambled on this and, to an extent, won. Earlier PPC machines
were much faster than their Intel counterparts, which gave Apple a
significant advantage, but as the 32-bit x86 processors continued to
improve, they've reached the point where no more processing is required
for most people, be it 32-bit or 64-bit.
>
> Could this be what is driving increased VAR and OEM attention
> toward Linux? I suspect it is at least a factor, and one that
> will only grow with time.
>
> Interesting essay. I don't agree that 2008 is as hard a deadline
> as he predicts, but the basic research and premise looks sound to
> me. Check it out here:
>
> http://www.catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html
>
I agree with pretty much all of what he says, it is a good essay, well
written and researched, however, it does focus entirely on the sustaining
technology, the desktop PC. Most of the interesting development is now
going into consoles, portable gaming machines, phones, web-tablets,
the OLPC machine, in fact, pretty much anything which has a mobility
tag to it.
I can see a space in the home for a 64-bit server machine in the basement,
cellar or cupboard under the stairs, linking together all the mobile
devices in the house, and connecting up to the broadband link and the
phone lines, and perhaps the TV and Radio incoming broadcasts, too.
I can see games consoles and thin client devices connecting to the
central server machine to deliver content of one kind or another to the
user. Will the user care whether he's got BBC7 off the satellite, DVB,
DAB or an Internet stream? Probably not, so long as he can get it.
So, I think that world domination for linux is coming, but I think it is
coming at the same time that the PC on every desktop idea dies a
none-too-soon death.
--
| Mark Kent -- mark at ellandroad dot demon dot co dot uk |
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