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[News] "Year of Desktop Linux"... No Such Thing

  • Subject: [News] "Year of Desktop Linux"... No Such Thing
  • From: Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 22 Nov 2007 07:31:51 +0000
  • Newsgroups: comp.os.linux.advocacy
  • Organization: Netscape / schestowitz.com
  • User-agent: KNode/0.10.4
Big Picture Stuff

,----[ Quote ]
| The same thing, I believe, with happen with Linux. It will slowly creep up on 
| the IT world until one day someone will notice the landscape has been 
| completely changed. At that time, the media wags will declare the Year of the 
| Linux Desktop, but that won't really mark the tipping point--no one will 
| really know when that happened, unless we were really paying attention.    
| Like all good projects, the success of Linux on the desktop will happen over 
| time, not all at once. So maybe we can put away the media hype this year. And 
| the next.   



The year of the Linux desktop has finally arrived

,----[ Quote ]
| While Windows advocates may smirk and say here we go again, as 2007 draws to 
| a close I get the strong feeling that we may look back upon this year and
| recognize it with hindsight as the year that the Linux desktop finally 
| arrived. There are a number of events that point to 2007 as being the turning 
| point for Linux and it all started in January with the release of Windows 
| Vista.     


Linux gains despite and because of Microsoft

,----[ Quote ]
| Despite the heightened competition over the last two quarters from 
| Microsoft-Novell and a move by Oracle to undercut Red Hat on the cost of Red 
| Hat Linux support service, Red Hat has reported double-digit growth in 
| revenue and an increase in profit.   
| “The success of Red Hat has been able to validate the future potential for 
| open source software,” Szulik says. 
| Emerging countries are also lucrative markets for Linux, says IDC’s Gillen, 
| because there isn’t as much of the legacy Windows technology to have to 
| displace.   


Playing the numbers game: how many Linux installations and users are out there?

,----[ Quote ]
| But smolt is only an opt-in tool and is not offered during text installations 
| (Servers, etc.) at all. According to Fedora’s statistics page the estimated 
| ratio between smolt data and reality is 1 to 10. This would result in 1.25 
| million Fedora users - and therefore in 25 million Linux users.   
| [...]
| There is another possible approach to these numbers: Ubuntu’s Mark 
| Shuttleworth estimated 8 million Ubuntu users in an interview in late 
| December 2006. And both the Linux Desktop Survey and the web server logs from 
| Distro Watch gave Ubuntu roughly 30 % of the cake. This makes more than 26.6 
| million Linux users 8 month ago.    


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