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Re: [News] Miniature GNU/Linux Laptops to Capture 20% Market Share?

"Linonut" <linonut@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message 
>* Sarah Connor fired off this tart reply:
>>> ,----[ Quote ]
>>> | "I think the chance of surpassing 20% in 2010 is very high because 
>>> there
>>> will
>>> | be further [Asus Eee] products in the future," said Jonney Shih, chief
>>> | executive of Asustek, in an interview with DigiTimes web-site.
>>> `----
>>> http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/other/display/20071120163919_Asustek_Aims_20_of_the_PC_Market_in_2010_with_Eee_PC.html
>> Linux figures and projectsions are always very optimistic when looking
>> forward. However, when that date finally arrives and you look at what has
>> actually been accomplished reality almost always falls far short of
>> projections and estimates.
> Sounds more like the arrival of Vista, to me.
>> "1999 - Year of linux on the desktop"
> Indeed, it is doing quite well now in 2007.
> I am highly encouraged.
> FUD, OEM deals, copyright litigation, the threat of patent litigation,
> vendor intimidation, astroturfing, political rhetoric, intense lobbying,
> standards-body gallery packing, data-format and protocol lock-in,
> subverted standards...
> All just water off the back of GNU/Linux and other OSS.
> Here's to the Open Desktop!

Most "predictions" tend to be overly optimistic. So my comments are not 
specific only to linux. Take the weather for example... if here in Chicago 
WFLD predicts 2" of snow people would hardly pay attention. But if they 
predict the "possibility of half a foot of snow" then it gathers attention.

And "attention" is really the point of these articles instead of accuracy is 
it not? The people who make these predictions are trying to get people to 
read and pay attention to their message. Accuracy, while nice, is hardly 
crucial. Very rarely are any of these "predictions" conservative. They 
almost always end up being so extreme and optimistic that reality rarely 
approaches what was predicted. Nearly everything is "over projected" versus 
what ends up really happening.

"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years." -- 
Alex Lewyt, president of vacuum cleaner company Lewyt Corp., in the New York 
Times in 1955.

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