Roy Schestowitz wrote:
> ____/ bbgruff on Sunday 31 August 2008 23:31 : \____
>> It will be very interesting to see what happens to those "User Base"
>> statistics, gathered from hits on web-sites, over say the rest of this
>> year....
>
> They look at an inappropriate and biased sample. What you need to do is pay
> attention just to trend and not to absolute numbers.
That's precisely whqat *I* do, Roy:-)
In fact, from that very same site, they show in today's figures the Linux
User Base for August going from 0.82% to 0.93%
To make a change like that, in one month, Linux would need to have a Market
Share of about 7.5% for the month.
The same calculation for Mac would show that to go from 7.76% to 7.87% in one
month would need it to have a Market Share of about 14.5% for the month.
Similarly, for MS to go from 91.02% to 90.66% in one month would indicate a
Market Share of about 69.5%
That's all on one month's figures, of course - and drawing conclusions from
one month is very dangerous.
The interesting thing is that if I do the calculation over 10 months, and
assume a linear rate of change over the period rather than a step-function 10
months ago, I get a very similar answer!
> I hear that in Brazil
> about 8% of the people use GNU/Linux and even the Microsoft agents from
> Gartner say that Linux has already grabbed 4% of the desktop market. If the
> figures in those 'Fisher Price' statistics (possibly sponsors by some
> non-Free software companies) show Linux doubling, apply that x2 to figures
> like 8% or 4%. There's a big lie out there and no 'Linux fund' to fight the
> FUD, unless Linux="Red Hat" or "Linux=Ubuntu".
It figures, as they say?
|
|