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Re: "If you build it, they will come"

On 2006-02-24, Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> __/ [ Ray Ingles ] on Friday 24 February 2006 16:44 \__
>>  Took about seven years or so to really get going there, too. But once
>> it took off ~1998, it's been growing steadily ever since. Now it's
>> something like 10% of the global server market (and a larger fraction of
>> the x86 market) and still growing double digits per quarter.
> Around 20% per annum, judging by one of the articles that discusses the
> recent survey. 10%+ per /quarter/ would mean 100*1.1.^4=46% growth (at the
> least) per annum.

 Well, IDC is quoted as saying Linux server revenue had its "14th
consecutive quarter of double-digit growth".


> I keep wondering what happens <strike>if</strike> when Linux becomes far more
> popular and therefore "less unique". If Linux winds up occupying 30% of the
> desktop/laptop pie within 3 years, people will pause and say to themselves:
> "Now, hold on a second. Which one is truly better and which one is truly an
> evil monopoly?

 Once it reaches a critical level (I dunno, maybe around 10%) it starts
be a serious consideration for application developers. There's already
pressure on Microsoft to support open standards (they *really* hate to
have to write to standards they don't control - it's bad for their
business model). When application developers start looking to write for
more than one platform, that *really* comes into focus.

 At that point, Microsoft has to compete based on quality. I have my own
opinions on their ability to do that.


 Ray Ingles                                   (313) 227-2317

  "...eWeek Labs connected a fresh install of Windows 2000
  Server to the outside Internet... we immediately started
 downloading... Windows 2000 Service Pack 2 and disconnected
 from the network when it was done.  [W]e were infected with
                 Nimda twice..." - eWeek

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