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Re: "If you build it, they will come"

__/ [ Ray Ingles ] on Friday 24 February 2006 16:44 \__

> On 2006-02-24, Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> Linux has made major inroads on servers and in data centres running both
>> open-source and proprietary applications on millions of computers
>> worldwide.
>  Took about seven years or so to really get going there, too. But once
> it took off ~1998, it's been growing steadily ever since. Now it's
> something like 10% of the global server market (and a larger fraction of
> the x86 market) and still growing double digits per quarter.

Around 20% per annum, judging by one of the articles that discusses the
recent survey. 10%+ per /quarter/ would mean 100*1.1.^4=46% growth (at the
least) per annum.

>> We've recently seen the rise of Linux on mobile devices. But the Linux
>> desktop remains elusive. We know it's out there, but it only now seems to
>> be approaching the tipping point.
>  Once people started seriously pushing Linux for servers, it really took
> off. Now that desktop Linux is starting to get the same kind of push, I
> rather suspect it'll play out similarly. Not pushing out Windows
> entirely (at least, not for the short or medium term), but gaining share
> and providing necessary competition for Microsoft.

I keep wondering what happens <strike>if</strike> when Linux becomes far more
popular and therefore "less unique". If Linux winds up occupying 30% of the
desktop/laptop pie within 3 years, people will pause and say to themselves:
"Now, hold on a second. Which one is truly better and which one is truly an
evil monopoly? Whose principles and idealogy should I embrace? Open Source
or closed-source business houses? Where is the software that I need the
most?". Apple could face a similar scenario if they become popular.
Objectiveness, zeal and hatred lose their impact. It's not a factor to me,
but it is to some people whom I know.


Roy S. Schestowitz
http://Schestowitz.com  |    SuSE Linux     |     PGP-Key: 0x74572E8E
  4:50pm  up 7 days  5:09,  8 users,  load average: 0.14, 0.42, 0.58
      http://iuron.com - Open Source knowledge engine project

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