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Re: [News] Windows Vista Will Lose to Linux

On 2006-05-31, Roy Schestowitz <newsgroups@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Yes, of course. Vista's ability to sell itself will not be discounted.
> However, IT departments are unlikely to embrace it any time before 2008 or
> 2009 (hardware costs a likely factor).

 Hmmm. I think there will be a fair number of purchases, and the
traditional little niggling incompatibilities that 'encourage' people to
bring all their systems 'up to the mark'. I do agree it'll be slower
than in past migrations (and they've been slowing down noticeably each
generation) but I'm predicting it won't be a disaster for MS.

 This is one of those cases where I'd be happy to be proven wrong, of
course. But MS is pretty good at hype. They are feeling price pressure
from Linux (even if people don't seriously intend to switch, just
mentioning Linux is like turning in a coupon to MS) and the press on
Vista seems less enthusiastic than I remember for any other MS release,
but I still think they've got enough clout to force some decent numbers.

 But it's getting harder. :->

> Linux will catch on in non-linear rates, as it already does.

 Yes, but humans aren't good at estimating non-linear growth. They tend
to overestimate short-term and underestimate long term. I don't claim to
be any better but I'm trying to temper my estimates with appropriate
'correction factors'. :->

>> The drivers for Linux adoption are long-term, big-picture things -
>> choice, flexibility, security, cost, etc. - and Microsoft's efforts can
>> affect the rate of acceleration to some degree but not the overall
>> direction. It'll be a few years yet before the decline is so obvious
>> even the trolls can't dismiss it, but it's coming.
> Well, your argument here reminds me of the FUD which I see in Linux Today
> (among other Linux sites, even Google).

 I just think the desktop will be a harder nut to crack than the server
area, that's all. Far from impossible, but the current dominance Windows
has in that market gives them a lot of inertia. The forces working
against that inertia are large and inexorable, but a little diffuse, so
their effect is not obvious.

 A big iceberg can last a surprisingly long time in tropical waters. But
it does melt eventually.

> PS - Took me a day to reply. Some of these threads delve into the cyclic
> arguments and exchange of fists, so better stay outside. There are currently
> 3 such threads.

 Yeah, but as you say, there aren't as many trolls as there have been.


 Ray Ingles                                           (313) 227-2317

  "[Jose Padilla's] legal status is the same as any other citizen's.
 If he can be forever detained by executive order without so much as
  a hearing before an independent magistrate, so can anybody else."
                          - M. W. Guzy

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